Caption: Luis Castillo pitching for Seattle this season.
By Ryan Harless
Ryan Harless is a fourth-year undergraduate at BGSU from Hillsboro, Ohio. He is majoring in Sport Management with a Journalism Minor. Baseball and golf at all levels are his primary interests but he is also interested in combat sports, hockey, basketball, and football.
September 30, 2023
In my previous articles, I reviewed my picks for who would be the breakout star for each team for the 2023 MLB season. I got through three divisions in that one leaving me the other half of the league to discuss. Let’s see how I did.
American League East
Red Sox: Starting off the second half of my reviews are the Boston Red Sox. Boston had a mixed bag of talent entering this season. Some young stars as well as a few established names like Rafael Devers, even after losing shortstop Xander Bogarts in free agency. I chose Triston Casas to be Boston’s breakout star this season and I think he was a good pick. I predicted he would slash .270/.380/.450 with 18-20 homers as well as 80+ RBI. As of today, Casas is slashing .263/.367/.490 with 24 homers and 65 RBI through 132 games. I think he has been able to make a big impact on Boston this year and should be there for years to come.
Orioles: The Baltimore Orioles had a huge crop of talent to choose from that could have been their breakout star. If you’ve followed the Orioles this season, you know the young stars like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Kyle Bradish have all had amazing seasons putting up 4+ WAR around the board. Unfortunately for me, I thought that Grayson Rodriguez would put up great numbers. I predicted that he would go 10-6 with a 2.80 ERA and be getting votes for AL Rookie of the Year. So far this year, Grayson is 7-4 with a 4.35 ERA. A far cry from what I had anticipated, but as is the case with a lot of young pitchers, it takes a few season for them to truly hone their craft and begin to dominate.
Rays: The Rays were another team that gave me lots of options. Thank goodness I didn’t choose Wander Franco. I also considered choosing Shane Baz, but instead I went with Pete Fairbanks, expecting him to be the full time closer for Tampa. I expected him to throw at least 60 innings with a 2.50 ERA and 30+ saves. As of today Fairbanks has thrown 45.1 innings through 49 games, an ERA of 2.58 and 25 saves. I think this pick was another success, he has almost hit the saves mark I set in almost 20 fewer innings than I anticipated and has kept his ERA very close to 2.50.
Blue Jays: For Toronto, I selected an unorthodox pick in the catcher/outfielder combo, Daulton Varsho. He was traded to the Jays in the off-season and I expected him to have a breakout year alongside the other second-generation stars the Blue Jays have (Vladdy, Bichette, and Biggio). Daulton’s father Gary was an outfielder in the MLB for eight seasons and was a coach and manager around the league for another eight. I expected Daulton to bat .265 with 30 homers and at least 25 stolen bases. Looking back, expecting him to be in the 30-30 club was a bit wishful. But Varsho had a decent season, batting .220 with 20 homers and 16 stolen bases. While his average fell a bit flat, his homers and stolen bases give me a good outlook for Varsho’s future in the league.
Yankees: I predicted that Oswald Peraza would have a breakout year for New York and make himself a spot in the Yankee middle infield for many years to come. I expected a slash line of .275/.350/.400 with 50 RBI and no fewer than 25 stolen bases. Peraza had quite a disappointing year, only playing in 47 games to date (a long ways from the 80+ I expected) and is slashing .195/.273/.551 with 14 RBI and only 4 stolen bases.
National League East
Nationals: The Nationals have been bad this year. There’s no other way to say it. But, I looked for starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore to be a high spot for the club to look to. I predicted Gore would throw 150 innings with 200 K’s and an ERA around 3.40. Gore has struggled with going deep in games as well as recently being placed on the 15 day injured list. This season he has thrown 136.1 innings striking out 151 batters along the way with a 4.42 ERA. His K/9 rate has me feeling good about my prediction going forward as I believe Gore just needs more experience at the MLB level to figure out how to lower his ERA.
Marlins: For Miami, I predicted their breakout star to be someone who has struck fear into my heart for over a year with his impossible-to-hit-against card in MLB The Show 22, Edward Cabrera. I expected Cabrera to be a part of a nasty Marlins rotation that never completely came to fruition with 150+ innings, a 14-6 record and an ERA of 3.00. Unfortunately, Cabrera has struggled like most young pitchers do and has a 7-7 record with a 4.24 ERA in only 99.2 innings. He has really had troubles going late into games but I expect that to improve with age.
Phillies: The Phillies have had a great season and at the moment are looking forward to making a playoff run as they have already clinched a spot. I looked for outfielder Brandon Marsh to have his breakout season with them. I predicted Marsh to bat .270 with 130+ hits and to keep his fielding percentage elite. As of now Marsh is batting .276 with 110 hits, and while his fielding has suffered a bit to the tune of 5 errors this season. Nonetheless, Marsh is having a heck of a season and I look for him to become an all-star in the very near future.
Mets: The Mets spent a ton of money this off-season just to be fighting to stay out of last place in September. But, I predicted that one of their new imports, Kodai Senga would have a dominant first season in the MLB and he proved me right. I expected Senga to throw 100 innings with 125 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA and as of today Senga has thrown 166.1 innings, struck out 202 and held an ERA of 2.98. Senga has probably been my best prediction in this whole series putting up absolute ace-level numbers this season. I think signing him was the best move the Mets made all off-season.
Braves: The Braves are annoyingly good and are going to continue being that way for the foreseeable future, which is unfortunate news for any fan of a team in the National League not from Atlanta. I predicted their 2022 Rookie of the Year winner to continue having a great start to his career and be their breakout star in Michael Harris II and again he did not disappoint. I looked for Harris II to slash .300/.400/.500 with 25 homers and at least 20 bags swiped. So far this season he is slashing .292/.330/.806 with 18 homers and 20 stolen bases on the dot. Now while he hasn’t had quite as good a year as I anticipated, he has been an incredibly valuable piece of one of the most dominant teams of all time in the 2023 Braves.
American League West
Athletics: Oakland, where to start. First and foremost, from every baseball fan we are sorry. I predicted starting pitcher Paul Blackburn to be the breakout star for Oakland this season, looking for him to make 25 starts and go 12-8 with a 3.50 ERA. As of today, Blackburn is 4-7 with a 4.43 ERA through 20 starts. In a season marred with letdowns for the A’s, this was no different.
Rangers: The Texas Rangers have had a great year and have been battling the Astros for first place in the AL West all year long. I predicted catcher Jonah Heim to continue making a name for himself as a premier catcher in the American League. My predictions for Heim in my previous article were that he would play 130 games, have a 30% caught stealing percentage and a 3+ WAR. This season Heim has had a 30% caught stealing percentage, played in 125 games and has a 2.8 WAR. Not to pat myself on the back, but *pat pat pat pat* I think I nailed this one.
Angels: The Angels have been an exciting team to watch as they have had arguably two of the greatest players of all time on the same team – Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Unfortunately, again, for the team, this was another disappointing season as they look to miss the playoffs. At the beginning of the season, I predicted that Jo Adell would have a breakout season for the Halos. I expected Adell to slash .250/.300/.350 with 18 homers as well as 50 RBI and 20 stolen bases. To date, Adell has a slash line of .208/.263/.581 with 6 RBI and zero stolen bases. Adell has been sidelined for most of the season with an oblique injury which has really dampened his ability to get stats, but as you can see his slash line had him on pace for a really productive season.
Mariners: For Seattle, I predicted that a former Cincinnati Reds player would finally make waves and get his flowers for being as dominant as he has been. Luis Castillo was my selection to breakout for the M’s. I expected Castillo to go 15-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 180 innings, have 200 strikeouts, and win the AL Cy Young award. While his season hasn’t been quite up to those standards, he has had an amazing year nonetheless, going 14-8 with a 3.20 ERA, 194.1 innings and 215 punch-outs. Really the only aspect of my prediction that he didn’t meet was the record and even that is a flawed stat for starting pitchers. He still has a really good chance at winning a Cy Young Award this year.
Astros: The Astros have had another very good season and actually have some competition in their division for the first time in a while as they are currently pushing to keep their wild card spot. The Rangers have a 2.5 game lead over Houston in the division but I still expect the Astros to cause problems in the postseason. I predicted that Chas McCormick would be their breakout player. He is a very good hitter who has proven that he can send the ball to all areas of the field on top of the fact that he has a handy glove in the field. I expected Chas to slash .275/.360/.390 with 8-10 homers and 120 hits and he actually exceeded my expectations. Today he is slashing .278/.359/.499 with 22 homers and 110 hits. He has had a great season and gave me another correct prediction to add to my count.
This has been a hectic baseball season and it’s only going to ramp up for the postseason. I am happy to announce that of the 15 teams here, I believe 8 of my predictions were correct! Adding that to my total from the first half of this retrospective (7), that leaves me with 15/30 correct predictions! And as we all know, if you can bat .300 in the MLB that’s a great career.