By Ryan Harless

Ryan Harless is a fourth-year undergraduate at BGSU from Hillsboro, Ohio. He is majoring in Sport Management with a Journalism Minor. Baseball and golf at all levels are his primary interests but he is also interested in combat sports, hockey, basketball, and football.

September 17, 2023

Around six months ago, I wrote a series of articles detailing who I believed would be the breakout star for each team in Major League Baseball. Well, here we are in September and the regular season is coming to a swift conclusion. But before we get into the fun and grittiness of playoff baseball, I wanted to look back at those breakout stars I predicted and see how well I did.

National League Central

Pirates: My first pick aged much like milk left outside in the middle of the summer. Only nine games into his 2023 season, Oneil Cruz broke his left fibula causing him to miss the rest of the season. While there were talks about him coming back for a few games at the end of the season, the Pirates decided to keep him shut down so that he can continue to regain his strength and come in to Spring Training 2024 at 100%. Ke’Bryan Hayes probably would have been a better pick for the Pirates as he led the team with a 3.5 WAR.

Reds: My second pick was only marginally better in that Hunter Greene managed to play a few more games than Cruz. Greene was also struck by the injury bug this year, being put in the IL in early June and only returning last month. The Reds, while being a very pleasant surprise, suffered multiple big injuries to their pitching staff which led them to lose more games than they should have. Cincinnati brought up multiple prospects who made massive impacts that I could have chosen. Matt McClain or Elly De La Cruz would have been better choices.

Cubs: I chose Nick Madrigal as my breakout star for Chicago this season, and while he wasn’t the best pick, I think I could have made worse decisions. Madrigal has played 90 games so far and is batting .263 whereas I predicted .280 if he played a full season. This was another team with a lot of surprises. Cody Bellinger has returned to his MVP form, and they may have found their middle infielder of the future in Nico Hoerner.

Brewers: For the Brew Crew, I chose Rowdy Tellez to be their breakout star… BOY was I wrong. In 94 games, Tellez is batting .213 with only 13 homers and 44 RBI. Those numbers placed him far behind the .240 pace with 40 homers and 100 RBI that I so boldly predicted. He is striking out more than twice as much as he is walking which doesn’t bode well when trying to put the ball in play. Their best player has been Corbin Burnes, which is almost to be expected from their ace, as they continue to dominate the NL Central.

Cardinals: I’m pretty sure I got this one right. My selection for the Cardinals breakout star was Lars Nootbaar and I think he lived up to my expectations. He had the second highest WAR on the team only behind Paul Goldschmidt by .1. I predicted he would bat .260 with 20 homers and 80 RBI and as of today he is batting .271 with 13 HR and 67 RBI. I’m happy with that choice.

American League Central

Royals: My pick for the Royals breakout star was Maikel Garcia. This was another pick that I feel pretty good about. He was fifth in WAR on the team, and I predicted that he would bat .270 with 120 hits and 60+ RBI. As of today, he is batting .273 with 113 hits and 49 RBI. I do believe that he will be a part of the Royals infield for many years to come if he is able to keep producing at this level.

Tigers: I selected Akill Baddoo to be the breakout star for Detroit this season. This was a team that had lots of promising young talent from all sides of the ball which made this an especially hard decision. I predicted that Baddoo would bat .280+ with 25 homers and possibly 20 stolen bases, but after a very hot start to the season he cooled off substantially and hasn’t hit any of those marks. Currently he is hitting .223 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases. A much better choice as the Tigers’ breakout star would have been their young star, Spencer Torkelson.

Twins: For the Minnesota Twins, I chose pitcher Pablo Lopez to be their breakout star. At 27, Pablo was one of the oldest players on this list and had the most big-league experience as well. Nonetheless, he looked primed for a breakout year and that was exactly what we got. I predicted that Lopez would go 16-8 with an ERA of around 3.00. As of today, he is sitting at 10-8 with a 3.58 ERA. So, while he wasn’t able to get quite enough run support to get to 16 wins, he has been a great pitcher for Minnesota. He also got the first All-Star nod of his career this season, so I’m counting this one as a win.

White Sox: The Chicago White Sox were another team with a lot of young talent to choose from when deciding on a breakout performance, and I chose another pitcher in Michael Kopech. I have been a huge fan of his ever since I heard his name in 2017 but injuries have really derailed his career thus far. I predicted that he would have north of 15 wins with a sub 2.75 ERA and 200+ strikeouts (as long as he threw around 200 innings). This was another one that I entirely missed. As of today, Kopech is 5-12 with a 5.47 ERA. The only thing I will take credit for getting right is his K/9IP stat as he has 133 punch-outs through 128.1 innings.

Guardians: For the Guards, I chose Steven Kwan to be their breakout star. I anticipated that he would follow up on his great rookie year and bat over .300 with 175+ hits and 20+ stolen bases. Kwan hasn’t quite lived up to my expectations although he has had a good year regardless. Kwan is batting .275 with 163 hits and 20 stolen bases on the dot.

National League West

Rockies: The Colorado Rockies were a tough team to choose from, there is some promising talent but ultimately it has been another disappointing year for Rockies fans. My prediction for their breakout star was Brendan Rodgers. A former first round pick in 2015, Rodgers has been bitten by the injury bug throughout his career and this year was no different. Only playing in 30 games thus far, Rodgers has been on the shelf for the majority of the season. I predicted him to slash .290/.350/.460 with 20 homers, bring in another Gold Glove, and even receive MVP votes. Through his 30 games played, he is only batting .218.

Diamondbacks: Arizona is another team with lots of young talent to choose from. I landed on Gabriel Moreno as my choice. I anticipated him to split time behind the plate as he has done, and I predicted a .290/.360/.400 slash line and 100 games played. Right now, he has played 98 games and is slashing .276/.325/.407. He is having a great season all around and probably would have been the best bet for breakout Diamondback if not for Rookie of the Year shoo-in Corbin Carroll.

Giants: For San Francisco, I chose a pitcher with some experience similar to that of Pablo Lopez. Entering his fifth year of big-league baseball, Logan Webb was my pick to break out for the Giants. I predicted that he would throw 200+ innings, keep an ERA around 3.00, and punch-out around 140 batters. Right now, Webb has thrown 201 innings and has 183 strikeouts with a 3.31 ERA. He is having another great season, and this is another prediction I would consider a win.

Padres: For the Padres breakout star, I predicted Brent Honeywell Jr. would have his star making season. Unfortunately, that never came to fruition. Honeywell has been relegated to pitching out of the bullpen and is actually no longer even with San Diego as he was sent to the White Sox in a trade. So far this season Honeywell has thrown 52.1 innings with a 4.82 ERA and 45 strikeouts. This was one of the most disappointing picks I made but I think that he can still become a very effective major league pitcher.

Dodgers: I made a relatively easy pick with the Dodgers, choosing their dominant closer from last year Brusdar Graterol. I expected him to throw around 75 innings with 40+ saves and an ERA of around 2.50. Graterol has shown no signs of slowing down from his brilliant last season and is currently at 62.1 innings pitched with only 7 saves, BUT his ERA on the season is a miniscule 1.30 and he is having another phenomenal year.

Looking back at the first half of my predictions, I think I’m 7 for 15 which is a lot better than I had anticipated. In the coming days, I will be wrapping up my retrospective for my 2023 MLB predictions!