Keely Dinn is a second-year undergraduate at BGSU from Trenton, Ohio. She is majoring in Sport Management with a Journalism minor. Professional football and college football are her primary interests, but she is willing to look at many more.
The 2024 NFL Draft is approaching and who will be going number one?
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Caption: Marvin Harrison, Jr.
“MHJ” is an American football wide receiver who had an amazing collegiate career in just three seasons with The Ohio State Buckeyes. But the latest season will probably go down in history with the Bucks. He is arguably the greatest receiver in Ohio State history. In the 2023 season, he had 67 receptions, 1,211 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Many people thought of him as unstoppable.
Michael Penix Jr.
Caption: Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most mysterious prospects for this draft due to the fact that he was a transfer student to the Washington Huskies. In two seasons with the Huskies, he had a total of 9,544 yards. In the 2023 season, he had 36 touchdowns and led the Huskies to the National Championship against the Michigan Wolverines. After the loss, Penix, Jr declared for the NFL Draft. Recently, there have been speculations that several teams could move up in the draft to try to draft Penix.
J.J. McCarthy
Caption: J.J. McCarthy
J.J. McCarthy played college football at the University of Michigan and led the Wolverines to three consecutive Big Ten Conference titles. In his senior year, he led the Wolverines to the National Championship title. There have been speculations that teams might move up to attain him as their pick. As a quarterback prospect, he has the ability to throw the ball smoothly to potential receivers. In the 2023 season McCarthy, he had 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns. He might double that when he gets drafted, depending on the team (and coach).
Caption: USC QB Caleb Williams winning the 2022 Heisman Trophy.
By Sam Morris
Sam Morris is from Madison Heights, Michigan, and is an undergraduate student at BGSU majoring in Sports Management. He has a passion for sports writing and journalism. In his free time, he also performs, writes, and produces his own raps for the music industry club at BGSU.
November 18, 2023
Background Info on The Current Heisman Race
Last college football season, I did a breakdown towards the end of the year on the major Heisman candidates and predicted that USC QB Caleb Williams would be the winner. Williams ended up winning the Heisman, despite losing to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Heading into the 2023-2024 season he was the betting favorite to repeat as the Heisman winner. However, despite his impressive 2023 individual statistics, Williams’ ability to repeat as Heisman winner has vanished quickly as his team has accumulated 4 losses. With Williams out of the picture, new candidates have emerged and there should be a tight race down the stretch between the four major candidates. With two games remaining, there is plenty of time for candidates to make up or lose ground in the race. Below, I’ll break down how each of the 4 candidates have performed so far this season, what their biggest weaknesses are, and what they each need to do to win this year’s Heisman award.
Jayden Daniels has proven to be one of the most electrifying players to watch in college football this season. LSU’s captain is in his second year with the program after transferring from Arizona State in 2022 and he is posting massive career highs and improvements this season compared to last year. His passer rating is up 55 points from 2022, giving him a career high, and ranking him 1st in the FBS in passer rating. He also currently has career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and completion percentage. Daniels ranks 1st in the FBS in passing touchdowns and total touchdowns, is 7th in the FBS in completion percentage, and is 3rd in the FBS in passing yards, making him one of only two players (along with Bo Nix) in the FBS to be ranked in the top 10 in all of these categories. Daniels is also the most prolific running quarterback on this list as well, giving him an extra edge over his opposing candidates in that regard.
Overall, Daniels probably has the most impressive statistics on this list, and his remaining schedule is the easiest out of the 4 candidates, as he is the only person who doesn’t have to play a ranked team down the stretch. However, Daniels’ biggest weakness is that LSU has 3 losses and has absolutely no shot of making the CFP, whereas the other three candidates are all undefeated or have 1 loss and are ranked in the top 10. To win the Heisman, Daniels will have to have monster statistical games in his last two contests. I believe he can pull this off as he threw for over 600 yards against Florida last week and could have similar impressive statistics the next two weeks to win the committee over.
McCarthy has taken a huge leap forward in his junior year as a leader and as a player. The Michigan captain has to deal with UM scandals in recruiting violations and sign stealing that have currently sidelined head coach Jim Harbaugh for a total of 6 games, and will keep him from coaching against Maryland and Ohio State. Despite this drama, McCarthy has pushed through to give one of the most impressive season performances in college football. He ranks 2nd in completion percentage and 3rd in passer rating, along with only throwing 3 interceptions all season (all of which came against Bowling Green). McCarthy has also led Michigan to an undefeated record and a crucial top 10 matchup victory over Penn State.
McCarthy’s biggest weakness is that Michigan’s run game with RB Blake Corum is being used more this year than it has ever been since McCarthy took over the starting QB role. For example, against Penn State, Michigan ran the ball a total of 46 times, including 19 straight times in the second half. McCarthy didn’t complete a single pass in the entire second half as the run game was working extremely effectively. While McCarthy has proven to be an accurate and powerful thrower, the rushing attack has limited some of his stats, ranking him just 44th in passing yards and 33rd in passing touchdowns. In my opinion, McCarthy can overcome these low stats to win the Heisman, but will need to win the last two games and be the difference maker in the game against Ohio State.
Nix’s biggest and only weakness in his candidacy is his week 6 loss to Penix. While the 5 candidates on this list can all win the Heisman, Nix has a clear-cut path if he can win the last two games and beat Penix in the Pac 12 championship game.
Despite his many pros, Penix also has a few weaknesses. First, he is the worst rushing QB on this list by a long shot, carrying the ball only 20 yards all season, for a total of -27 yards! Also, Penix has the most interceptions out of the QB’s on this list, with 7, which has caused Washington’s games to be a lot closer than Oregon’s or Michigan’s, where their QB’s turn the ball over much less often. Overall, Penix controls his own Heisman destiny. If he can win the last two contests against 10th ranked Oregon State and last place Washington State, and then beat Nix and Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, he will most likely win the Heisman.
Final Thoughts and 2023 Heisman Prediction
Overall, this year’s Heisman race has been an intriguing one and it will be interesting to see what the committee values on December 9th when they give out the award. Recent history has suggested that a QB will win the award, so despite Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr and Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon having phenomenal seasons I don’t think they realistically have a chance to win. With the 4 QB’s I highlighted above, each has compelling cases that could turn into a Heisman run.
If the committee values winning, Michigan QB J.J McCarthy could end up as the champion. He has become a proven winner and has impressive accuracy and passing rating statistics this season. If he were to beat Ohio State and Penix and Nix both had unimpressive performances in the Pac-12 title game, then I could see him as the winner. However, his low usage down the stretch of the season has decreased his statistics in which others on this list thrive and is the reason why I think he will end up in 4th place.
As for LSU QB Jayden Daniels, his current statistics have him as arguably the most impressive player in the nation this season. His ability to throw the ball into tight windows and to throw for over 450 yards any given night is something that is unique to this year’s list of candidates. However, he has a slim chance to win as his team has 3 losses and the committee has shown to value winning as an important part of winning the Heisman as a QB in recent years. In fact, the last QB to win the award with more than 3 losses was Lamar Jackson in 2016 when Louisville went 8-5. Similar to Lamar’s insane rushing statistics that season, If Daniels can compile two more games of impressive passing yards, he may be able to leapfrog Nix and Penix. However, I ultimately think his 3-loss record will put him into 3rd place in the final Heisman voting.
Ultimately, the biggest Heisman-related storyline down the stretch of the season will be the Pac-12 title game with Oregon and Washington. Unless Oregon State beats both Oregon and Washington, then Nix will have a rematch against Penix with huge playoff and Heisman implications. In my opinion, because of the impressive statistics and ability to win so many ranked games this season by both Nix and Penix, whoever wins that Pac-12 Championship game will be the Heisman winner. Both Nix and Penix have many strengths but Penix’s weakness to be turnover prone is what I think will propel Oregon to victory and Bo Nix to become the 2023 Heisman winner.
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