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2023 MLB Breakout Stars in Review

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Caption: Luis Castillo pitching for Seattle this season.

By Ryan Harless

Ryan Harless is a fourth-year undergraduate at BGSU from Hillsboro, Ohio. He is majoring in Sport Management with a Journalism Minor. Baseball and golf at all levels are his primary interests but he is also interested in combat sports, hockey, basketball, and football.

September 30, 2023

In my previous articles, I reviewed my picks for who would be the breakout star for each team for the 2023 MLB season. I got through three divisions in that one leaving me the other half of the league to discuss. Let’s see how I did.

American League East

Red Sox: Starting off the second half of my reviews are the Boston Red Sox. Boston had a mixed bag of talent entering this season. Some young stars as well as a few established names like Rafael Devers, even after losing shortstop Xander Bogarts in free agency. I chose Triston Casas to be Boston’s breakout star this season and I think he was a good pick. I predicted he would slash .270/.380/.450 with 18-20 homers as well as 80+ RBI. As of today, Casas is slashing .263/.367/.490 with 24 homers and 65 RBI through 132 games. I think he has been able to make a big impact on Boston this year and should be there for years to come.

Orioles: The Baltimore Orioles had a huge crop of talent to choose from that could have been their breakout star. If you’ve followed the Orioles this season, you know the young stars like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Kyle Bradish have all had amazing seasons putting up 4+ WAR around the board. Unfortunately for me, I thought that Grayson Rodriguez would put up great numbers. I predicted that he would go 10-6 with a 2.80 ERA and be getting votes for AL Rookie of the Year. So far this year, Grayson is 7-4 with a 4.35 ERA. A far cry from what I had anticipated, but as is the case with a lot of young pitchers, it takes a few season for them to truly hone their craft and begin to dominate.

Rays: The Rays were another team that gave me lots of options. Thank goodness I didn’t choose Wander Franco. I also considered choosing Shane Baz, but instead I went with Pete Fairbanks, expecting him to be the full time closer for Tampa. I expected him to throw at least 60 innings with a 2.50 ERA and 30+ saves. As of today Fairbanks has thrown 45.1 innings through 49 games, an ERA of 2.58 and 25 saves. I think this pick was another success, he has almost hit the saves mark I set in almost 20 fewer innings than I anticipated and has kept his ERA very close to 2.50.

Blue Jays: For Toronto, I selected an unorthodox pick in the catcher/outfielder combo, Daulton Varsho. He was traded to the Jays in the off-season and I expected him to have a breakout year alongside the other second-generation stars the Blue Jays have (Vladdy, Bichette, and Biggio). Daulton’s father Gary was an outfielder in the MLB for eight seasons and was a coach and manager around the league for another eight. I expected Daulton to bat .265 with 30 homers and at least 25 stolen bases. Looking back, expecting him to be in the 30-30 club was a bit wishful. But Varsho had a decent season, batting .220 with 20 homers and 16 stolen bases. While his average fell a bit flat, his homers and stolen bases give me a good outlook for Varsho’s future in the league.

Yankees: I predicted that Oswald Peraza would have a breakout year for New York and make himself a spot in the Yankee middle infield for many years to come. I expected a slash line of .275/.350/.400 with 50 RBI and no fewer than 25 stolen bases. Peraza had quite a disappointing year, only playing in 47 games to date (a long ways from the 80+ I expected) and is slashing .195/.273/.551 with 14 RBI and only 4 stolen bases.

National League East

Nationals: The Nationals have been bad this year. There’s no other way to say it. But, I looked for starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore to be a high spot for the club to look to. I predicted Gore would throw 150 innings with 200 K’s and an ERA around 3.40. Gore has struggled with going deep in games as well as recently being placed on the 15 day injured list. This season he has thrown 136.1 innings striking out 151 batters along the way with a 4.42 ERA. His K/9 rate has me feeling good about my prediction going forward as I believe Gore just needs more experience at the MLB level to figure out how to lower his ERA.

Marlins: For Miami, I predicted their breakout star to be someone who has struck fear into my heart for over a year with his impossible-to-hit-against card in MLB The Show 22, Edward Cabrera. I expected Cabrera to be a part of a nasty Marlins rotation that never completely came to fruition with 150+ innings, a 14-6 record and an ERA of 3.00. Unfortunately, Cabrera has struggled like most young pitchers do and has a 7-7 record with a 4.24 ERA in only 99.2 innings. He has really had troubles going late into games but I expect that to improve with age.

Phillies: The Phillies have had a great season and at the moment are looking forward to making a playoff run as they have already clinched a spot. I looked for outfielder Brandon Marsh to have his breakout season with them. I predicted Marsh to bat .270 with 130+ hits and to keep his fielding percentage elite. As of now Marsh is batting .276 with 110 hits, and while his fielding has suffered a bit to the tune of 5 errors this season. Nonetheless, Marsh is having a heck of a season and I look for him to become an all-star in the very near future.

Mets: The Mets spent a ton of money this off-season just to be fighting to stay out of last place in September. But, I predicted that one of their new imports, Kodai Senga would have a dominant first season in the MLB and he proved me right. I expected Senga to throw 100 innings with 125 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA and as of today Senga has thrown 166.1 innings, struck out 202 and held an ERA of 2.98. Senga has probably been my best prediction in this whole series putting up absolute ace-level numbers this season. I think signing him was the best move the Mets made all off-season.

Braves: The Braves are annoyingly good and are going to continue being that way for the foreseeable future, which is unfortunate news for any fan of a team in the National League not from Atlanta. I predicted their 2022 Rookie of the Year winner to continue having a great start to his career and be their breakout star in Michael Harris II and again he did not disappoint. I looked for Harris II to slash .300/.400/.500 with 25 homers and at least 20 bags swiped. So far this season he is slashing .292/.330/.806 with 18 homers and 20 stolen bases on the dot. Now while he hasn’t had quite as good a year as I anticipated, he has been an incredibly valuable piece of one of the most dominant teams of all time in the 2023 Braves.

American League West

Athletics: Oakland, where to start. First and foremost, from every baseball fan we are sorry. I predicted starting pitcher Paul Blackburn to be the breakout star for Oakland this season, looking for him to make 25 starts and go 12-8 with a 3.50 ERA. As of today, Blackburn is 4-7 with a 4.43 ERA through 20 starts. In a season marred with letdowns for the A’s, this was no different.

Rangers: The Texas Rangers have had a great year and have been battling the Astros for first place in the AL West all year long. I predicted catcher Jonah Heim to continue making a name for himself as a premier catcher in the American League. My predictions for Heim in my previous article were that he would play 130 games, have a 30% caught stealing percentage and a 3+ WAR. This season Heim has had a 30% caught stealing percentage, played in 125 games and has a 2.8 WAR. Not to pat myself on the back, but *pat pat pat pat* I think I nailed this one.

Angels: The Angels have been an exciting team to watch as they have had arguably two of the greatest players of all time on the same team – Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Unfortunately, again, for the team, this was another disappointing season as they look to miss the playoffs. At the beginning of the season, I predicted that Jo Adell would have a breakout season for the Halos. I expected Adell to slash .250/.300/.350 with 18 homers as well as 50 RBI and 20 stolen bases. To date, Adell has a slash line of .208/.263/.581 with 6 RBI and zero stolen bases. Adell has been sidelined for most of the season with an oblique injury which has really dampened his ability to get stats, but as you can see his slash line had him on pace for a really productive season.

Mariners: For Seattle, I predicted that a former Cincinnati Reds player would finally make waves and get his flowers for being as dominant as he has been. Luis Castillo was my selection to breakout for the M’s. I expected Castillo to go 15-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 180 innings, have 200 strikeouts, and win the AL Cy Young award. While his season hasn’t been quite up to those standards, he has had an amazing year nonetheless, going 14-8 with a 3.20 ERA, 194.1 innings and 215 punch-outs. Really the only aspect of my prediction that he didn’t meet was the record and even that is a flawed stat for starting pitchers. He still has a really good chance at winning a Cy Young Award this year.

Astros: The Astros have had another very good season and actually have some competition in their division for the first time in a while as they are currently pushing to keep their wild card spot. The Rangers have a 2.5 game lead over Houston in the division but I still expect the Astros to cause problems in the postseason. I predicted that Chas McCormick would be their breakout player. He is a very good hitter who has proven that he can send the ball to all areas of the field on top of the fact that he has a handy glove in the field. I expected Chas to slash .275/.360/.390 with 8-10 homers and 120 hits and he actually exceeded my expectations. Today he is slashing .278/.359/.499 with 22 homers and 110 hits. He has had a great season and gave me another correct prediction to add to my count.

This has been a hectic baseball season and it’s only going to ramp up for the postseason. I am happy to announce that of the 15 teams here, I believe 8 of my predictions were correct! Adding that to my total from the first half of this retrospective (7), that leaves me with 15/30 correct predictions! And as we all know, if you can bat .300 in the MLB that’s a great career.

Effects that tanking has on media and fans

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by Brendan Ripley-Barasch

Recently, the issue of “tanking” was brought up at the latest Major League Baseball owner’s meetings. Tanking is described as teams intentionally being bad in hopes of landing a high draft pick and trading away veteran talent to acquire young prospects to build a better future. These teams that are reportedly tanking much prefer the term, “rebuilding.” Although no steps have been taken to prevent tanking in the future, it is good to know that it has crossed these owner’s minds that it is a problem that needs to be fixed.

The blueprint that teams currently tanking are trying to follow is that of the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros. The Cubs had not made the playoffs since 2008 and until this past year they were known as one of the worst teams in the National League. As recently as 2012, the Cubs lost 101 games, and suddenly in 2015 they go 97-65; how is this possible? From those years of being terrible they managed to draft the 2015 Rookie of the year, Kris Bryant, with the second overall pick in the 2013 draft and Kyle Schwarber with the fourth overall pick in 2014. The rebuild was also helped by a couple key trades including the one that landed them Anthony Rizzo, but in just a couple years the Cubs had revamped their entire roster and are now recognized as a contender and have turned into a free agent hot spot. After signing such stars as Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, the Chicago Cubs are scary good.

The Astros may not be on the level of the Cubs yet but they have certainly had success with their tanking as well by making the playoffs in 2015. They certainly have a bright future though, by having the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa, 2011 first round pick George Springer, and emerging superstar Dallas Kuechel. Prior to this season the Astros were seen as the very worst team in baseball and were seemingly content with staying that way with the lowest payroll in baseball in 2013 at a whopping $26 million. By contrast, Alex Rodriguez was making more than the entire Houston Astros team. They have been able to stockpile young talent and trade some of those pieces to acquire proven stars as well. They will be a playoff contender as well in 2016.

A team currently in the midst of tanking are the Cincinnati Reds. This offseason, fans saw their All-star third baseman, Todd Frazier, get traded to the White Sox for a handful of prospects and Aroldis Chapman be shipped off to the Yankees for a bunch of unproven young players. It seemed like after the All-star break, the Cincinnati front office decided to call it quits and tried to give the young players a chance to gain some experience before they geared up for a long rebuild process and this did not make fans or media happy. After sporting a starting rotation of almost all rookies for most of the season, the Reds finished the season 64-98 and earned the second overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft.

It is a dark time for Cincinnati fans and media. With the only proven players on their roster being Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, fans know they don’t have much to look forward to in 2016 or even 2017. The same goes for the media, it is difficult to cover a team that is intentionally running themselves into the ground. Maybe in the next couple years they will be able to draft well enough to put a contender on the field for 2018 though. In this day and age, tanking is a viable strategy because at least you will get a good draft pick that will contribute to the rebuild, instead of being somewhere in the middle and not getting good enough draft picks to get the team over the hump and into the playoffs. Media members in Cincinnati are not as ferocious as they are in let’s say New York, but certainly they will give their thoughts on the tanking strategy and it’s almost inevitable that some of them will voice their frustration and call for the GM’s head. The media has to be patient as well, the Reds will point at the Cubs and say they will be on that level in the next couple years; it is just a matter of time. It will be interesting to see what the Reds do with Joey Votto and his massive contract; will they look to him as an important part of their rebuild and hope he can help younger players develop or will they send him packing as well and hope to grab some good young players?

The one example of tanking that teams in other sports do not want to follow is the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers have not made the playoffs since the 2011-2012 and since then have drafted and traded Rookie of the year Michael Carter-Williams and in back to back years their number one draft pick missed the entire season. Finally it seems like they have drafted a top tier talent in Jahlil Okafor but they still have an absolutely embarrassing record of 8-43. Philadelphia media have been patient these past couple years but lately there have been grumblings that media and fans are done waiting and expect General Manager Sam Hinkie to start adding to the roster and surround young prospects Nerlens Noel and Okafor with some nice complementary players and end the embarrassment.

Hopefully in the next couple years the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia 76ers will be done with tanking and put out a product on the floor that will make the fans and media happy.