By Sam Morris

Sam Morris is from Madison Heights, Michigan, and is an undergraduate student at BGSU majoring in Sports Management. He has a passion for sports writing and journalism. In his free time, he also performs, writes, and produces his own raps for the music industry club at BGSU.

February 6, 2024

Overview

The 2023-2024 NFL season has been one filled with many intriguing storylines and surprises. Many teams that were predicted to be good this season have fallen short with season-ending quarterback injuries (Jets, Vikings, Bengals). Other teams had surprise playoff success with emerging stars, such as the Rams with rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua and the Texans with rookie quarterback C.J Stroud. Heading into the playoffs this season it felt like many teams had a realistic shot to make a deep run or possibly win it all.

AFC Playoff Storyline

In the AFC, two contenders with promising regular seasons, the Dolphins and Browns, collapsed in their losses in the AFC playoffs. Both games were similar, the Browns and Dolphins kept it close in the first halves, but then couldn’t stop the opposing offenses from scoring in the second half. With the Bills convincingly beating the 7-seeded Steelers, and the Ravens having a bye for being the top seed, the divisional round was set with the 4 AFC divisional winners.

The Ravens were in a tie game with Houston before shutting them out in the second half and eventually winning 34-10, ending C.J Stroud‘s impressive rookie campaign. Meanwhile, despite playing so well against Pittsburgh, Buffalo was once again eliminated from Super Bowl contention by Kansas City for the third time in the last four seasons, losing in a nail-biter 27-23.

In the AFC Championship game, Baltimore played defense as well as they could play against Kansas City’s offense, holding them to just 17 points. However, it was shockingly their offense that cost Baltimore the game as they ran the ball just 7 times all game and Lamar Jackson threw three interceptions, including one into triple coverage in the red zone. The final score was Kansas City: 17, Baltimore: 10, sending Kansas City to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.

NFC Playoff Storyline

In the NFC, two teams that had a chance in the playoffs but had disappointing ends to their seasons were the NFC East playoff representatives, the Eagles, and the Cowboys. The Eagles started the season with a hot 10-1 record before losing to the eventual NFC champion 49’ers. After that 42-19 loss, the Eagles ended the season losing 6 of their last 7, including a 32-9 upset blowout loss to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in the first round. Meanwhile, the Cowboys won 7 of their last 9 games before losing to the 7-seeded Packers in the first round, 48-32.

With these two contenders eliminated, the Detroit Lions continued their improbable season with victories over the Rams and Buccaneers to reach the NFC Championship game. However, the 1-seeded 49’ers ended up rising to the occasion with two huge second halves in their come-from-behind wins against both young teams that overachieved expectations this season, the Packers and Lions.

The 49’ers winning the NFC means a 2020 Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs. Two of the biggest storylines of the season (Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s relationship and Brock Purdy’s continued underdog story) will be going head-to-head in the media world. On the field, the matchup should be even more intriguing with each team having many strengths and weaknesses that I discuss next.

AFC Champion: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City quarterback, Patrick Mahomes

Strengths

The Chiefs are going into this Super Bowl with a newfound confidence that they haven’t had all season. Their offense has been rolling in these playoffs, scoring an improved 23.3 PPG, but it’s their defense that has been their biggest strength in the playoffs and throughout the year. In the playoffs, the defense has given up just 13.3 PPG and only 4 touchdowns in three games. The front seven of Kansas City’s defense has been specifically good at pass rushes, which is what they must continue to be good at in the Super Bowl if they want to have success against Brock Purdy and his plethora of skill players.

Patrick Mahomes is obviously another strength for the Chiefs; not only because of his accuracy and ability to make clutch plays, but also because of the Super Bowl experience that he has under his belt. Mahomes’ connection to Travis Kelce will also be a strength for the Chiefs. Kelce and Mahomes have tremendous chemistry and have now connected for more playoff touchdowns than any other duo in NFL history, including 49’ers’ greats Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.

Weaknesses

On the other hand, Kansas City dropped to the third seed this season for a few reasons, which will be the same weaknesses that they need to address and overcome in this Super Bowl matchup: dropped passes from wide receivers and penalties. The dropped passes by the wide receivers have been an enormous problem this season for the Chiefs. It hasn’t been just one receiver either that has been responsible for this problem but almost the entire depth chart besides rookie Rashee Rice. Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, and even Travis Kelce have had problems hanging on to the football this year. This problem has resulted in a league- high 44 dropped passes compared to their opponent, the 49’ers, who coincidentally have the league’s fewest dropped passes with 9.

The penalties are also a big problem that the Chiefs need to control in the Super Bowl. Usually a very disciplined team under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs rank 2nd, only behind Dallas, in offensive holding calls, and 8th in pass interference penalties. These are two big areas that they need to clean up before going up against an already potent defensive line and wide receiving core.

NFC Champion: San Francisco 49’ers

San Francisco quarterback, Brock Purdy

Strengths

The 49’ers’ biggest strengths are their receiving core, their rushing attack, and their pass rush. First, the 49’ers receiving core has been absolutely lethal this season with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel each eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark. Furthermore, Christian McCaffrey’s dominance as a pass catcher allowed the 49’ers to become the first team in NFL history with a running back, two wideouts, and a tight end to each have over 1,000 scrimmage yards. Brock Purdy has also improved throughout the season as an accurate passer, often threading the needle to a variety of receivers in tight coverage situations which has helped the receiving core gain confidence.

The rushing attack of San Francisco will also be a challenge for Kansas City as McCaffrey was the league’s leading rusher this season, and as mentioned earlier, is also a lethal weapon to catch the ball out of the backfield. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s run-pass-option style of offense has also benefitted the run game behind blockers, all-pro Left tackle Trent Williams, and receivers Jauan Jennings and George Kittle.

Lastly, the pass rush of the 49’ers’ front seven has been one of the best in the league all season. Bosa and Young have teamed up to make a dynamic duo setting the edge, while Hargrave and Armstead have returned from injury good as new and have stepped up in the playoffs by stuffing the run game. This is going to be a key component in the Super Bowl matchup as the Chief’s ability to balance the offense with running back Isiah Pacheco has been one of the reasons their offense has sprung back to life over the last month and a half. Along with this pro-bowl caliber D-Line, linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner have had fantastic seasons both in pass coverage and rushing the quarterback, and both will be needed in this matchup to spy on Patrick Mahomes’ running ability.

Weaknesses

Despite the abundance of weapons San Francisco has, they have two main weaknesses that could prove to be their downfall if they don’t fix them before the Super Bowl. Their first weakness is their reduced production in the secondary, particularly from the safety position. With second-year pro-bowl Strong Safety Talanoa Hufanga out for the season, the 49’ers have had to come up with mix-match solutions all year. Rookie Ji-Ayir Brown, Isiah Oliver, Ambry Thomas, and even formerly retired Logan Ryan have stepped in to fill the role. What has resulted from this has been inconsistent play over the middle of the field and plenty of big yardage catches in zone coverage. This was particularly the case in the last two wins against the Lions and Packers where Jared Goff and Jordan Love exposed the 49’ers secondary for easy touchdowns in the first halves. If the 49’ers don’t fix this problem it will be difficult to beat the Chiefs who have been exposing defenses over the middle of the field with Kelce and Rice.

The second major weakness of the 49’ers is their kicking game. Rookie kicker Jake Moody has had an up-and-down season with an 84% regular season field goal percentage, which ranks 24th in the NFL. He also has a missed field goal in each postseason game. Overall, the inconsistency and inexperience compared to their past kicker, veteran Robbie Gould, and Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker, is an issue if they have to rely on kicking down the stretch of the Super Bowl.

Conclusion

In my opinion, because the 49’ers and Chiefs both have balanced and deep rosters on both sides of the ball, this Super Bowl will come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes with their biggest weaknesses. If Mahomes and the Chiefs can expose the 49’ers secondary and limit their dropped passes then I believe they can definitely win this game. However, the 49’ers could just as easily win if they tighten up their zone coverage over the middle of the field and take advantage of Chiefs’ penalties which have been a problem for them all season.