Category Archives: Heisman Trophy

2023 Heisman Candidate Breakdown

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Caption: USC QB Caleb Williams winning the 2022 Heisman Trophy.

By Sam Morris

Sam Morris is from Madison Heights, Michigan, and is an undergraduate student at BGSU majoring in Sports Management. He has a passion for sports writing and journalism. In his free time, he also performs, writes, and produces his own raps for the music industry club at BGSU.

November 18, 2023

Background Info on The Current Heisman Race

Last college football season, I did a breakdown towards the end of the year on the major Heisman candidates and predicted that USC QB Caleb Williams would be the winner. Williams ended up winning the Heisman, despite losing to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Heading into the 2023-2024 season he was the betting favorite to repeat as the Heisman winner. However, despite his impressive 2023 individual statistics, Williams’ ability to repeat as Heisman winner has vanished quickly as his team has accumulated 4 losses. With Williams out of the picture, new candidates have emerged and there should be a tight race down the stretch between the four major candidates. With two games remaining, there is plenty of time for candidates to make up or lose ground in the race. Below, I’ll break down how each of the 4 candidates have performed so far this season, what their biggest weaknesses are, and what they each need to do to win this year’s Heisman award.

Jayden Daniels (QB) (LSU)

HT: 6’4    WT 210    CLASS: Senior

Current 2023 Stats

Carries: 114  

Rushing Yds: 918           

Total TD: 38

Comp %: 71.4%      

Passing Yds: 3,164     

INT: 4

Passer Rating: 202.1

Remaining Schedule (7-3) (Ranked 15th)

VS (6-4) Georgia State

VS (6-4) Texas A&M

Overall Candidacy

Jayden Daniels has proven to be one of the most electrifying players to watch in college football this season. LSU’s captain is in his second year with the program after transferring from Arizona State in 2022 and he is posting massive career highs and improvements this season compared to last year. His passer rating is up 55 points from 2022, giving him a career high, and ranking him 1st in the FBS in passer rating. He also currently has career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and completion percentage. Daniels ranks 1st in the FBS in passing touchdowns and total touchdowns, is 7th in the FBS in completion percentage, and is 3rd in the FBS in passing yards, making him one of only two players (along with Bo Nix) in the FBS to be ranked in the top 10 in all of these categories. Daniels is also the most prolific running quarterback on this list as well, giving him an extra edge over his opposing candidates in that regard.

Overall, Daniels probably has the most impressive statistics on this list, and his remaining schedule is the easiest out of the 4 candidates, as he is the only person who doesn’t have to play a ranked team down the stretch. However, Daniels’ biggest weakness is that LSU has 3 losses and has absolutely no shot of making the CFP, whereas the other three candidates are all undefeated or have 1 loss and are ranked in the top 10. To win the Heisman, Daniels will have to have monster statistical games in his last two contests. I believe he can pull this off as he threw for over 600 yards against Florida last week and could have similar impressive statistics the next two weeks to win the committee over.

J.J McCarthy (QB) (Michigan)

HT: 6’3    WT 205    CLASS: Junior

Current 2023 Stats 

Carries: 45

Rushing Yds: 171            

Total TD: 21

Comp %: 76.2%      

Passing Yds: 2,194     

INT: 3

QB Rating: 187.2

Remaining Schedule (10-0) (Ranked 3rd)

@ (6-4) Maryland

VS (10-0) 2. Ohio State

Overall Candidacy

McCarthy has taken a huge leap forward in his junior year as a leader and as a player. The Michigan captain has to deal with UM scandals in recruiting violations and sign stealing that have currently sidelined head coach Jim Harbaugh for a total of 6 games, and will keep him from coaching against Maryland and Ohio State. Despite this drama, McCarthy has pushed through to give one of the most impressive season performances in college football. He ranks 2nd in completion percentage and 3rd in passer rating, along with only throwing 3 interceptions all season (all of which came against Bowling Green). McCarthy has also led Michigan to an undefeated record and a crucial top 10 matchup victory over Penn State.

McCarthy’s biggest weakness is that Michigan’s run game with RB Blake Corum is being used more this year than it has ever been since McCarthy took over the starting QB role. For example, against Penn State, Michigan ran the ball a total of 46 times, including 19 straight times in the second half. McCarthy didn’t complete a single pass in the entire second half as the run game was working extremely effectively. While McCarthy has proven to be an accurate and powerful thrower, the rushing attack has limited some of his stats, ranking him just 44th in passing yards and 33rd in passing touchdowns. In my opinion, McCarthy can overcome these low stats to win the Heisman, but will need to win the last two games and be the difference maker in the game against Ohio State.   

Bo Nix (QB) (Oregon)

HT: 6’2    WT 215    CLASS: Senior

Current 2023 Stats 

Carries: 38

Rushing Yds: 121             

Total TD: 34

Comp %: 77.7%      

Passing Yds: 3,135     

INT: 2

QB Rating: 184.7

Remaining Schedule (9-1) (ranked 6th)

@ (3-7) Arizona State

VS (8-2) 10. Oregon State

Overall Candidacy

As previously mentioned, Nix is one of only two players (besides Jayden Daniels) to rank in the top 10 in completion percentage (1st in FBS), passing yards (6th in FBS), passing touchdowns (2nd in FBS), and passer rating (4th in FBS), giving him some of the most impressive statistics in college football. The 5th year senior is like Daniels in that he also transferred in 2022, coming to Oregon from Auburn. Nix has improved in each of his past two seasons and has led an offense that has scored over 30 points in every single game they have played this season, including 81 against Portland State, 63 against Cal, 55 against Hawaii, and 42 against Deion Sanders-led Colorado! Despite losing to Penix Jr. and Washington earlier in the season, Nix has currently overtaken him as the betting favorite to win this year’s Heisman.

Nix’s biggest and only weakness in his candidacy is his week 6 loss to Penix. While the 5 candidates on this list can all win the Heisman, Nix has a clear-cut path if he can win the last two games and beat Penix in the Pac 12 championship game.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB) (Washington)

HT: 6’3    WT 215    CLASS: Senior

Current 2023 Stats 

Carries: 20  

Rushing Yds: -27            

Total TD: 30

Comp %: 68.0%      

Passing Yds: 3,533

INT: 7

QB Rating: 170.5

Remaining Schedule (10-0) (ranked 5th)

@ (8-2) 10. Oregon State

VS (4-6) Washington State

Overall Candidacy

Yet another player who has used the transfer portal to his advantage, Penix is in his 6th year of eligibility, playing 4 years at Indiana, and now in his second at Washington. Despite the close battle between these 4 candidates this season, Penix has been the slight favorite for most of the year. Penix is a defensive back’s nightmare as he has shredded both zone and man coverage all season. His completion percentage ranks 15th, he has the 4th most passing touchdowns, and is 12th in passer rating. On top of that, he currently ranks 1st in the FBS in passing yards, with a whopping 284 more yards than last year’s Heisman Winner, USC QB Caleb Williams, who has the 2nd most passing yards. While some of Penix’s statistics aren’t as good as Nix, he currently has an advantage over him in that he beat him 36-33 week 6 in a head-to-head matchup.

Despite his many pros, Penix also has a few weaknesses. First, he is the worst rushing QB on this list by a long shot, carrying the ball only 20 yards all season, for a total of -27 yards! Also, Penix has the most interceptions out of the QB’s on this list, with 7, which has caused Washington’s games to be a lot closer than Oregon’s or Michigan’s, where their QB’s turn the ball over much less often. Overall, Penix controls his own Heisman destiny. If he can win the last two contests against 10th ranked Oregon State and last place Washington State, and then beat Nix and Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, he will most likely win the Heisman.

Final Thoughts and 2023 Heisman Prediction

Overall, this year’s Heisman race has been an intriguing one and it will be interesting to see what the committee values on December 9th when they give out the award. Recent history has suggested that a QB will win the award, so despite Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr and Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon having phenomenal seasons I don’t think they realistically have a chance to win. With the 4 QB’s I highlighted above, each has compelling cases that could turn into a Heisman run.

If the committee values winning, Michigan QB J.J McCarthy could end up as the champion. He has become a proven winner and has impressive accuracy and passing rating statistics this season. If he were to beat Ohio State and Penix and Nix both had unimpressive performances in the Pac-12 title game, then I could see him as the winner. However, his low usage down the stretch of the season has decreased his statistics in which others on this list thrive and is the reason why I think he will end up in 4th place.

As for LSU QB Jayden Daniels, his current statistics have him as arguably the most impressive player in the nation this season. His ability to throw the ball into tight windows and to throw for over 450 yards any given night is something that is unique to this year’s list of candidates. However, he has a slim chance to win as his team has 3 losses and the committee has shown to value winning as an important part of winning the Heisman as a QB in recent years. In fact, the last QB to win the award with more than 3 losses was Lamar Jackson in 2016 when Louisville went 8-5. Similar to Lamar’s insane rushing statistics that season, If Daniels can compile two more games of impressive passing yards, he may be able to leapfrog Nix and Penix. However, I ultimately think his 3-loss record will put him into 3rd place in the final Heisman voting.  

Ultimately, the biggest Heisman-related storyline down the stretch of the season will be the Pac-12 title game with Oregon and Washington. Unless Oregon State beats both Oregon and Washington, then Nix will have a rematch against Penix with huge playoff and Heisman implications. In my opinion, because of the impressive statistics and ability to win so many ranked games this season by both Nix and Penix, whoever wins that Pac-12 Championship game will be the Heisman winner. Both Nix and Penix have many strengths but Penix’s weakness to be turnover prone is what I think will propel Oregon to victory and Bo Nix to become the 2023 Heisman winner.

2022 Heisman Candidate Breakdown

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By Sam Morris

Sam Morris is from Madison Heights, Michigan, and is an undergraduate student at BGSU majoring in Sports Management. He has a passion for sports writing and journalism. In his free time, he also performs, writes, and produces his own raps for the music industry club at BGSU.

November 23, 2022

History and Statistical Overview of the Heisman Trophy

The Heisman Trophy is given to the best player in FBS College football and is currently determined by 928 votes from sports journalists across the country as well as former Heisman winners. University of Chicago running back Jay Berwanger received the first award that was presented in 1935 by New York’s Downtown Athletic Club; it was therefore originally called the D.A.C trophy. The following year, the award was renamed after the club’s director John Heisman, the former head football coach of Oberlin College, Washington and Jefferson, Akron, Rice, Penn, Georgia Tech, Auburn, and Clemson. When he died in 1936, the award was named the Heisman Trophy .

In the history of the award, position wise, there have only been 1 defensive back (Charles Woodson), 2 defensive ends (Larry Kelley and Leon Hart), 3 fullbacks (Doc Blanchard, Alan Ameche, and Steve Owens), and 4 wide receivers (Johnny Rodgers, Desmond Howard, Tim Brown, and DeVonta Smith) to win the award. The positions that have the most Heisman award winners are quarterbacks (36 recipients), and running backs (40 winners). More recently, 16 of the last 20 Heisman candidates have been quarterbacks as the position continues to dominate the game from a statistical perspective. Out of the 86 Heisman winners, 23 have gone on to the NFL to become the 1st overall draft pick, 25 have gone between the 2nd and 10th picks, 17 have gone between the 11th and 32nd picks in the first round, and 21 have gone in the later rounds or have decided not to play in the NFL. The teams that have the most Heisman winners include Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oklahoma with 7 winners each, USC with 6 winners, Alabama with 4 winners, and Army, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Michigan, and Nebraska with 3 winners each. Another interesting fact about the Heisman trophy is that running back Archie Griffin from Ohio State University is the only player to win the award twice and running back Reggie Bush is the only player to have his Heisman award vacated following his recruiting violations with USC.

Like the MVP trophies of professional sport leagues, the Heisman Trophy comes with controversy as the exact criteria needed to win the award is often unclear. Some journalists vote based on statistical categories alone, others pick the player who was the biggest reason his team succeeded and therefore wouldn’t have been successful without him. Because of this variation it is often difficult to predict the Heisman winner. With a week and a half before the award is announced, the current Heisman hopefuls and reasons why each could win the award are listed below.  

Blake Corum  (RB) (Michigan)

HT: 5’8   WT: 210  CLASS: Junior

Current 2022 Stats

Carries: 245 Rushing Yds: 1,457             Avg Rush/Car: 590              Total TD: 19

Receptions: 11          Receiving Yards: 80

Remaining Schedule (11-0)

@ (11-0) 2. Ohio State

Overall Candidacy

Although he is the only running back on this list, Corum is a strong candidate for the Heisman because he has the 3rd highest rushing yards in the FBS and is tied for 2nd in the FBS for rushing touchdowns. Corum also makes up the majority (52%) of Michigan’s 4th ranked rushing offense, which proves that he is one of the main reasons that they are undefeated. Corum is so important to Michigan’s offense that when he went down with an injury against Illinois their rushing offense stalled. Luckily, for Corum and Michigan, it appears that the injury is not too serious to keep him from playing against Ohio State. In this weekend’s rivalry game against 2nd ranked Ohio State, he will be playing rival Heisman candidate C.J Stroud, which could potentially boost Corum’s Heisman chances if he has a better individual performance than Stroud.  

Hendon Hooker  (QB) (Tennessee)

HT: 6’4   WT: 220  CLASS: Redshirt Senior

Current 2022 Stats

Carries: 104             Rushing Yds: 403             Avg Rush/Car: 4.1              Total TD: 32

Comp %: 69.6%       Passing Yds: 3,135           INT: 2

Remaining Schedule (9-2)

@ (5-6) Vanderbilt

Overall Candidacy

Hooker had been the leader for the Heisman race in Vegas for much of the season; however, he recently lost pretty badly to #1-ranked Georgia and unranked South Carolina which will effect his Heisman resume as 2 players on this list are undefeated. The biggest issue with Hooker is that the injury he suffered against South Carolina could put him out for the season which would have a massive impact on his chances of winning the award. Hooker is still an extremely strong candidate as he has the 5th highest completion percentage in FBS, ranks 11th in passing yards, and has the best TD/Int ratio in the FBS. His experience as a redshirt senior comes through in his low turnovers as Hooker sat out his first year when he was at Virginia Tech and also got an extra year of eligibility from the COVID year, making him older (24) than almost the entire previous NFL draft class.

Drake Maye  (QB) (North Carolina)

HT: 6’4   WT: 220  CLASS: Redshirt Freshman

Current 2022 Stats

Carries: 147             Rushing Yds: 597             Avg Rush/Car: 4.1             Total TD: 39

Comp %: 68.8%       Passing Yds: 3,614          INT: 4

Remaining Schedule (9-2)

VS. (7-4) 17. NC State

Overall Candidacy

Maye is the catalyst for a UNC offense that has scored more than 30 points in all but one of their first 11 games of the season. With 1 regular season game left and an ACC Championship game vs. Clemson, Maye’s candidacy is built on the fact that despite being a redshirt freshman he ranks 3rd in the FBS in passing yards, 3rd in passing TDs, and 10th in completion percentage, making him the only QB in the FBS to rank in the top 10 of all 3 categories.

Bo Nix (QB) (Oregon)

HT: 6’2   WT: 215  CLASS: Senior

Current 2022 Stats 

Carries: 80 Rushing Yds: 513          Avg Rush/Car: 6.4        Total TD: 40 (14 rushing)

Comp %: 72.4%      Passing Yds: 3,062        INT: 6

Remaining Schedule (9-2)

@ (8-3) Oregon State

Overall Candidacy

Despite getting brutally destroyed (49-3) against Georgia in the opening week, Nix, a transfer from Auburn, has led the Ducks to 8 straight wins before losing to Washington. This includes impressive wins over ranked conference opponents, UCLA and Utah. While Nix has a tough schedule ahead of him with rival Oregon State and a potential matchup against USC in the conference championship, he is more than capable of winning the Heisman. He currently ranks 1st in the FBS for completion percentage, 15th for passing touchdowns, 1st of all Quarterbacks for rushing touchdowns, 5th out of all positions for rushing touchdowns, and 16th in passing yards. He is also the only quarterback on this list to have a receiving touchdown this season.

C.J Stroud (QB) (Ohio State)

HT: 6’3   WT: 220  CLASS: Junior

Current 2022 Stats 

Carries: 33 Rushing Yds: 77             Avg Rush/Car: 2.3            Total TD: 35

Comp %: 66.4%       Passing Yds: 2,991      INT: 4

Remaining Schedule (11-0)

VS. (11-0) 3. Michigan

Overall Candidacy

Currently, C.J Stroud has the shortest odds to win according to Vegas. He plays in a huge market school at Ohio State and gets a plethora of media attention. While his statistics aren’t as good as other QB’s on this list, they are still impressive, as he ranks 24th in completion percentage, is tied for 1st in passing touchdowns, and 18th in passing yards. Stroud will have a tough test against Michigan but could improve his Heisman resume greatly with a good performance.

Caleb Williams (QB) (USC)

HT: 6’1   WT: 215  CLASS: Sophomore

Current 2022 Stats

Carries: 88             Rushing Yds: 316             Avg Rush/Car: 3.6            Total TD: 40

Comp %: 64.9%       Passing Yds: 3,480      INT: 3

Remaining Schedule (10-1)

VS (8-3) 20. Notre Dame

Overall Candidacy

Williams has one of the toughest remaining schedules as he plays rival Notre Dame in his final regular season game and then awaits either Bo Nix and Oregon, Washington, or Utah (who has already defeated USC). However, like other candidates on this list, if Williams takes care of business against those teams, his Heisman hopes could improve. An Oklahoma transfer who came with Lincoln Riley, Williams has the worst completion percentage of any quarterback on this list, ranking 39th in the FBS, but ranks 4th in the FBS for passing touchdowns and 6th in passing yards.

Overall Thoughts

While Stroud is the betting favorite, his statistical numbers are overall the worst of the 5 quarterbacks in terms of rushing and passing yards. However, his ability to lead his team to an undefeated record so far, and the fact that he is doing it on a big media stage will garner a lot of votes. Corum’s team is also undefeated, and he is by far the biggest reason for their perfect record. When he came out of the Illinois game due to injury, the Michigan offense fell apart in his absence. Corum’s injury is a slight concern, but he will almost certainly play against Ohio State as there is so much significance in that game for Michigan’s season. Corum will need to beat Stroud and Ohio State to get serious Heisman attention as a running back hasn’t won the award since Derrick Henry won in 2015. As for Williams, his completion percentage is the main concern, but he has great statistical numbers otherwise and will play massive opponents his next two weeks to prove himself.

Hooker’s candidacy has taken a turn for the worse as his high statistical numbers at the beginning of the season have come back to earth with two late season losses, and his injury vs South Carolina will likely end his season. Lastly, Nix and Maye are two names that aren’t getting as much attention but have put up some of the best numbers in the league statistically. Nix’s ability to rank in the top 15 in both passing and rushing touchdowns is truly unique but he does have 2 losses. Maye’s ability to score so many points almost singlehandedly is also impressive, but his loss to Georgia Tech is a concern. Maye’s ACC Championship against Clemson’s top-notch defense will be a huge factor in determining whether he wins the award; he is the only FBS player to rank in the top 10 in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, and passing yards this season.

After reviewing these 6 candidates, it is safe to say that with just over a week left in the regular season, it is still a close Heisman race that will largely depend on whether these candidates can keep performing at high levels, and if they can take their teams to conference championships and/or the college football playoff.